One little correction to the reason drivers are losing weight. It’s not to improve power to weight ratio, since the minimum weight of an F1 car includes the driver, but rather an issue of weight distribution and ballast. KERS is a fairly heavy system and there are limited options for placement on the car. The problem is that it adds weight to areas that may not be beneficial to weight distribution and decreases the amount of ballast that can be placed to tune the car. Every F1 car is built underweight so the team can use ballast to control weight distribution depending on the track and conditions. The lighter drivers will have more ballast available, so will also have a greater range of weight distribution.

At the tipping point of the issue, heavier drivers may not have enough ballast available to achieve the desired weight distribution and may choose not to use the KERS system. This situation would put lighter drivers at a huge advantage since they may be able to maintain the desired weight distribution and still use the KERS system.

My amateur conclusion: On tracks where increased front weight distribution is needed, bet against Kubica, Barrichello, Webber, Bourdais, and Sutil.

My amateur dilemma: Figuring out which tracks need increased front weight distribution.